Contemporary geopolitics has been profoundly influenced by the rivalry between the United States and Russia, a confrontation that has intensified in various regions of the world, from the northern seas, such as the Arctic, to the Black Sea. This article explores how U.S. control aspirations in Greenland, NATO’s expansion in the Baltic, and tensions in the Black Sea form a «ring of fire» surrounding Russia, seeking to contain its influence and protect Western interests.
Many consider Russia to be an aggressive state, but this is not true. In the current geopolitical context, the West has sought to corner the Eurasian giant and provoke both its downfall and isolation. This is particularly true since the moment when Putin managed to dominate the internal situation in the country and defeat terrorists, double agents, traitors, and dangerous oligarchs.
From that point on, in the first quarter of the 2010s until 2020, Russia will emerge as a power to be reckoned with, capable of altering the geopolitical theater in the arenas in which it is involved.
The American Hunger for Greenland
The strategic location of Greenland, on the path to the Arctic, has led the United States to intensify its interest in the island. Controlling Greenland’s waters could provide the U.S. not only with a strategic advantage in Arctic navigation but also with access to rich natural resources such as gas and oil, in a context of decreasing sea ice. This interest has been exacerbated by the growing militarization of the Arctic region by Russia to protect its route, which is now more threatened than ever under Trump, causing Moscow to expand its military presence and develop infrastructure on its Arctic coast.
Greenland has also become a focal point of competition among powers due to its proximity to the Northeast Passage navigation route, which, if fully opened, would facilitate and shorten trade between Europe and Asia. Therefore, American pressure to establish greater influence in Greenland can be seen as a critical component in the struggle for Arctic control.
Additionally, offers to buy the island from Denmark (in the purest style of classic international law) or invade it aim to bolster Russia from the north.
NATOization of the Baltic
With the recent inclusion of Sweden and Finland in NATO, the alliance has consolidated its presence in the Baltic region, representing a direct challenge to Russian influence. This expansion not only has implications for the security of the Baltic countries but also reinforces Lithuania’s claims over the sovereignty of Kaliningrad, a Russian military enclave in the region. The situation is further aggravated by Polish-Lithuanian pressures in the Suwalki corridor, a critical point connecting Poland with the Baltic States that could be a strategic target in the event of a conflict.
The Polish policy of Miedmimorze, or «middle coast,» seeks to establish a network of cooperation and defense among the countries of Northern and Eastern Europe against the Russian threat, pivoting on an entente between Warsaw, Bucharest, and Kyiv. These countries would form a terrestrial bulwark that, under NATO’s service, would keep Russia and Belarus isolated from the rest of the continent by a hostile geopolitical force (not only military). Polish prometeism, advocating for closer ties and support for neighboring countries, is a vital tool in this approach that seeks to destabilize Russia internally, trying to contaminate and use Russian diversity as a weapon against Moscow.
Romanian Geopolitics in the Black Sea
In the Black Sea, Romania and Ukraine have aligned in an effort to contain Russia following the return of Crimea to Russia and the integration of Donetsk and Lugansk (and all the territory taken to the east of the Dnieper River). This reinforces the western region of the Russian coasts while the eastern region is protected by Abkhazia, a territory recognized as a state by Russia. Romania has become a bastion of Western maritime projection against Russia, working closely with NATO to strengthen its coastal defense and increasing its naval capacity.
Indeed, Romania is so strategic that the recent presidential elections were suspended due to the victory of a pro-Russian politician. The role of Turkey, Bulgaria, and Georgia is fundamental in this scenario, where collective security in the Black Sea becomes crucial. The region, marked by historical tensions, is facing a new militarization approach that aligns these countries in a unified posture against any Russian expansion.
Thus, the Black Sea basin remains compromised by the constant tension accumulated in Georgia, a strategic point between the West and Russia, more sensitive than Ukraine. Tensions between Tbilisi and Moscow over historical issues since the fall of the USSR, such as the conflicts in Adjara, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia, have allowed the West to attempt to draw Georgia out of Russian influence and escalate the conflict at the border.
However, the mutual economic and financial dependence between Georgia and Russia sustains the relationship despite moments of severe tension, such as the 2008 war or periodic protests against the country’s elections when a pro-Russian candidate wins, the latest in November 2024.
The situation in the Adriatic also reflects the attempt to push Russia out of the sea through the isolation of Serbia, a state that is entirely favorable to Russia due to historical, cultural, ethnic, linguistic, and religious ties and which has sought to maintain its influence in Montenegro in an environment where Western pressure tries to limit Russian influence. Montenegro, although it has faced internal tensions, has aligned itself more with Western policies, generating religious tensions between Montenegrin Orthodox leaders and Serbian Orthodox leaders, leading Serbia to lose much of its influence, its access to the sea (after the dissolution of Serbia and Montenegro in 2006), and therefore its maritime influence and that of Russia.
Conclusion: The Western Assault on Transcaucasia
The «ring of fire» against Russia is completed with the dynamics in Transcaucasia, where tensions have been exacerbated between Armenia and Azerbaijan, targeting resources and routes in the Caspian Sea. The West has attempted to extend its influence in this region, aiming to accommodate the geopolitical realities of the new world order, where control of resources and trade routes is more crucial than ever.
This complex web of geopolitical relations shows us that, in the battle for dominance and influence, every move counts, and the future of the balance of power in Europe and the Arctic will be fundamental in defining international relations in the near future. The Turkish (NATO-aligned) influence in Azerbaijan, as well as the growing Western influence through France and the United States, which has its largest embassy in the Middle East in Yerevan, have forced Russia to harden its geopolitical stance, its strength, and its survival in an unnecessarily hostile environment provoked by fear and irrational hatred of Russia, which is seen as an enemy when, in reality, it could be a great partner.
Sources:
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